capacity-planner

1# capacity-planner
2 
3Sizing tool for **ops teams that handle queued work** — Support, CX,
4Customer Success, BizOps, IT ops, Finance ops. Built on Erlang-C
5queueing theory, Little's Law, and the operational-leadership canon
6(Fournier, Larson, Cleveland, Reinertsen). Deterministic, stdlib-only,
7no LLM calls.
8 
9## Purpose
10 
11You are an ops leader sized 15 → 35 with no idea how the 35-person org
12will actually behave at peak load. Or you are at 88% utilization and
13SLA is starting to slip. Or you have a hiring budget approved and need
14to sequence it across four quarters without burning out the existing
15team. This skill answers those questions with arithmetic, not vibes.
16 
17It produces three artifacts:
18 
191. **Capacity sizing** at 70/80/90% utilization against P50/P90/P99
20   demand, with P(SLA breach) at each point and a SAFE/WATCH/AT_RISK/CRITICAL
21   risk band.
222. **Utilization health** at the per-member traffic-light level plus a
23   team verdict (HEALTHY/SQUEEZED/OVERLOADED/UNBALANCED).
243. **12-month quarterly hiring plan** accounting for ramp curves,
25   attrition, QoQ demand growth, and span-of-control manager triggers.
26 
27## When to use
28 
29- **Annual ops capacity planning** (October-November for the following
30  fiscal year).
31- **Quarterly re-sizing** if demand changed >15% or attrition spiked.
32- **Pre-budget defense** — the math that justifies the headcount ask
33  to your CFO.
34- **Diagnostic** when an ops team is missing SLA and you need to know
35…