digital-oracle

1# digital-oracle
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3> Markets are efficient. Price contains all public information. Reading price = reading market consensus.
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5## Methodology
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7**Answer questions using only market trading data — no news, opinions, or statistical reports as causal evidence.** If something is true, some market has already priced it in.
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9Five iron rules:
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111. **Trading data only** — prices, volume, open interest, spreads, premiums. Never cite analyst opinions.
122. **Explicit reasoning from price to judgment** — explain clearly "why this price answers this question."
133. **Multi-signal cross-validation** — never conclude from a single signal. At least 3 independent dimensions.
144. **Label the time horizon of each signal** — options price 3 months, equipment orders price 3 years — don't mix them in the same vote.
155. **Structured output** — the final report must follow the Step 5 template: layered signal tables → contradiction analysis → probability scenarios → signal consistency assessment. Do not substitute prose for structured reporting.
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17## Workflow
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19### Step 1: Understand the question
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21Decompose the user's question into:
22- **Core variable**: What event or trend?
23- **Time window**: Is the user asking about 3 months, 1 year, or 5 years?
24- **Priceability**: Is there real money being traded on this outcome?
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26### Step 2: Select signals
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28Based on question type, select from the signal menu below. **Don't use just one category — cover at least 3.**
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30#### Geopolitical conflict / War risk
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