cot-contrarian-detector

1# COT Contrarian Detector
2 
3## Overview
4 
5Implements step 1 of Jason Shapiro's COT (Commitment of Traders) contrarian
6process: detect when large speculators are crowded into one side of a futures
7market. Crowded positioning is a *precondition* for a contrarian trade, not a
8trade signal — a market only becomes tradable once crowding is confirmed by a
9news failure and price-action reversal (steps 2-3), which this skill guides
10the user through manually.
11 
12**Core thesis (Shapiro):** Large speculators (hedge funds, CTAs, momentum
13traders) tend to be maximally positioned at trend exhaustion, not trend
14inception. When they are already crowded onto one side, the next big move is
15statistically more likely to run them over than to reward them further. Fade
16the *speculators*, not the commercials (commercials hedge for structural
17reasons and are not a crowd-psychology signal).
18 
19## When to Use This Skill
20 
21**English:**
22- "What markets are the speculators crowded into right now?"
23- "Run a COT report analysis" / "Show me COT positioning extremes"
24- "Is anyone 'trapped' in gold / the dollar / bonds right now?"
25- User wants to find contrarian futures setups
26- User asks for a Jason Shapiro-style COT screen
27 
28**Japanese:**
29- 「COTレポートで買われすぎ・売られすぎのポジションを調べて」
30- 「投機筋が偏っている市場は？」
31- 「ジェイソン・シャピロ式の逆張り分析をして」
32 
33**Do NOT use when:**
34- The user wants a trade signal right now — crowding alone is not
35  actionable; see Guardrails below
36- The user is asking about individual equities — COT reports cover CFTC
37…