yao-kelly-skill

1# Yao Kelly Skill
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3## Use This Skill For
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5- turn "should I invest, bet, or allocate, and how much?" into a practical resource allocation plan
6- decide whether the user's problem is actually suitable for Kelly-style sizing
7- translate a percentage into a minimum action package with owner, metric, review window, add condition, and stop condition
8- start with incomplete input, give a provisional view early, then ask only the minimum high-impact follow-up questions
9- size a single bet or opportunity, or conservatively split a pool across several opportunities
10- keep a round-by-round log for the current case and an append-only change log for future edits to this skill
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12## Do Not Route Here
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14- pure formula tutoring, homework solving, or generic finance education
15- requests for guaranteed returns, sure-win systems, or martingale-style escalation
16- final licensed investment, legal, or tax advice
17- leverage sizing with no bounded downside model
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19## Default Workflow
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211. Use `references/intake-contract.md` to identify the user's real resource pool, decision question, minimum action unit, review window, and opportunity candidates.
222. If the input is incomplete, read `references/multi-turn-kelly-loop.md`:
23   - ask only `1-3` questions that can materially change the result
24   - recalculate `decision_readiness` after every round
25   - stop asking when the threshold is met or the action class is already stable
263. Decide whether Kelly is suitable:
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