yao-bayesian-skill

1# Yao Bayesian Skill
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3## Use This Skill For
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5- structure a vague choice into hypothesis, time horizon, success metric, and actions
6- set a prior, grade evidence, update posterior, compare action thresholds, and recommend next information
7- start from incomplete input with a weak prior, then improve the judgment through multi-turn questioning
8- export one synchronized Chinese-first `markdown` plus bilingual `html` report
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10## Do Not Route Here
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12- Bayes theorem tutoring or homework-only calculations
13- broad research or brainstorming with no explicit decision report
14- final professional medical, legal, or investment advice
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16## Default Workflow
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181. Use `references/intake-contract.md` to convert the request into one structured decision brief.
192. If input is incomplete, read `references/multi-turn-dialogue-loop.md`; start with a weak prior and ask the minimum next questions.
203. Use `references/evidence-prior-playbook.md` to grade evidence and choose the lightest valid update path.
214. Run `references/prior-hygiene-checklist.md`; show only the 3-5 principles most relevant to this case.
225. Maintain the round log: user input, remaining gap, update path, probability change, and decision readiness.
236. Run `scripts/bayesian_decision_report.py` for canonical JSON or `scripts/generate_report_bundle.py` for `markdown + html`.
247. Finalize with `references/decision-report-contract.md`, `references/report-export-pipeline.md`, and `references/sensitivity-and-safety.md`.
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