define-hypothesis

1<!-- PM-Skills | https://github.com/product-on-purpose/pm-skills | Apache 2.0 -->
2# Hypothesis
3 
4A hypothesis is a testable prediction about how a change will affect user behavior or business outcomes. It transforms assumptions into explicit statements that can be validated or invalidated through experimentation. Well-formed hypotheses prevent teams from building features based on untested beliefs and create shared understanding of what success looks like.
5 
6## When to Use
7 
8- After problem framing, before committing to a solution
9- When designing experiments or A/B tests
10- When team members have differing assumptions about user behavior
11- Before investing significant engineering resources in a feature
12- When pivoting direction and need to validate the new approach
13 
14## When NOT to Use
15 
16- You are ready to design the actual A/B test (variants, sample size, duration) -> use `measure-experiment-design`; this skill frames what to test, not how
17- The problem itself is still unframed -> use `define-problem-statement` first
18- You want to organize many assumptions and ideas into a discovery structure -> use `define-opportunity-tree`
19- The team needs the full business-model picture, not one testable claim -> use `foundation-lean-canvas`
20 
21## Instructions
22 
23When asked to create a hypothesis, follow these steps:
24 
251. **State the Belief**
26…