thinking-cynefin

1# Cynefin Classification
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3Classify by cause-effect, then use only the matching response mode. Wrong-domain method is the failure mode.
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5## When to Use
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7- Unsure whether to run a playbook, analyze, probe, or stabilize.
8- A method keeps failing and domain mismatch is plausible.
9- A novel or mixed problem needs approach selection before solution work.
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11## When NOT to Use
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13- Domain and method are already agreed—execute.
14- Task is finding a specific cause, not choosing an approach.
15- Classification done; switch to the domain method—do not re-label endlessly.
16- Pure mechanical edits with no approach uncertainty.
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18## Procedure
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201. **State the unit.** Name the decision, incident, or subsystem; if mixed, list separable parts.
212. **Probe cause-effect.** Is the link obvious, expert-analyzable, retrospective only, or imperceptible in turbulence? Check predictability, urgency, and probe safety.
223. **Assign one domain per unit:**
23   - **Clear** — obvious → Sense → Categorize → Respond with a runbook.
24   - **Complicated** — expert-analyzable → Sense → Analyze → Respond; several valid answers.
25   - **Complex** — emergent → Probe → Sense → Respond with safe-to-fail probes; amplify/dampen signals.
26   - **Chaotic** — no safe sensing time → Act → Sense → Respond; stabilize first.
27   - **Disorder** — unknown → split and classify each part.
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