thinking-lindy-effect

1# Lindy Effect
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3For non-perishable ideas, technologies, and practices, expected remaining life scales with current survival age. Prefer proven survivors unless the new option clears a burden of proof or the domain has drifted.
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5## When to Use
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7- Choosing languages, frameworks, databases, protocols, patterns, or dependencies where long-term survival matters.
8- Skill or architecture bets whose value depends on lasting relevance.
9- Ranking options when ages differ materially and the choice outlives a short experiment.
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11## When NOT to Use
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13- Perishable targets: specific SaaS vendors, hardware, fashion, or products that can shut down regardless of concept age.
14- Active paradigm discontinuity where age in the old regime is weak evidence.
15- Throwaway work where longevity is irrelevant — optimize for fit and speed.
16- Treating "older" as "optimal for a new requirement"; survival predicts further survival, not best fit.
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18## Procedure
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201. **Confirm non-perishable scope.** Concept/tech/practice continues; vendor/device → score fit/risk only and stop.
212. **Record survival age.** First significant production use and current age (ecosystem-relative if the ecosystem is young).
223. **Form the Lindy prior.** Expected remaining life ≈ current age; mark confidence from age and continued active use.
234. **Run domain-drift checks.** Problem class changed? Paradigm shift invalidating old assumptions? New option uniquely closes a real present gap?
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