thinking-effectuation

1# Effectuation
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3Under Knightian uncertainty, start from available means and affordable loss—not a fixed goal and predicted return. Create the path through controllable action and real commitments.
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5## When to Use
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7- The market, technology, or problem is novel enough that outcome probabilities are not trustworthy.
8- Means are clearer than the goal: identity, skills, assets, and network exist before a fixed target does.
9- A small action can buy information or a partner commitment without risking ruin.
10- Plans keep breaking because the environment shifts faster than forecasts.
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12## When NOT to Use
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14- The path is predictable: known market, knowable unit economics, established playbook → use causal planning.
15- A single wrong step is ruinous or irreversible → de-risk first; do not treat affordable-loss steps as free.
16- The goal is already fixed and resources are the only uncertainty → plan to the goal.
17- Routine execution with settled requirements → act; do not re-inventory means.
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19## Procedure
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211. **Inventory means only.** List who you are (skills, constraints, values), what you know (domain, tools, data), and who you know (reachable partners, users, resources). Reject "what would be needed for an ideal plan" as input.
222. **Cap affordable loss.** State the maximum time, money, reputation, and opportunity cost you can lose and still continue. If the proposed step exceeds any cap, redesign the step smaller or stop.
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