market-top-detector

1# Market Top Detector Skill
2 
3## Purpose
4 
5Assess heuristic market top risk using a 6-component scoring system (0-100). Integrates three market risk methodologies:
6 
71. **O'Neil** - Distribution Day accumulation (institutional selling)
82. **Minervini** - Leading stock deterioration pattern
93. **Monty** - Defensive sector rotation signal
10 
11Unlike the Bubble Detector (macro/multi-month evaluation), this skill focuses on **tactical 2-8 week timing signals** that precede 10-20% market corrections.
12 
13## Score interpretation
14 
15Treat the 0-100 composite as a **heuristic risk score**, not an estimated event
16probability. A score of 70 does not mean a 70% chance of a top. Risk-budget
17percentages are policy heuristics, not measured outcome frequencies.
18Historical patterns are retrospective estimates, not point-in-time evidence.
19Report **no comparable episode** when any component is unavailable/invalid or
20nearest-pattern weighted RMS exceeds 15 points. This tolerance is a predeclared
21heuristic, not an empirically validated similarity threshold.
22Follow [the point-in-time evaluation protocol](references/point_in_time_evaluation.md)
23before making calibration claims. No measured calibration results are supplied.
24 
25## When to Use This Skill
26 
27**English:**
28- User asks "Is the market topping?" or "Are we near a top?"
29- User notices distribution days accumulating
30- User observes defensive sectors outperforming growth
31- User sees leading stocks breaking down while indices hold
32…