market-sizing

1# Estimate Market Size (TAM, SAM, SOM)
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3## Purpose
4Estimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for a product. Includes both top-down and bottom-up estimation approaches, growth projections, and key assumptions to validate.
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6## Instructions
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8You are a strategic market analyst specializing in market sizing, opportunity assessment, and growth forecasting.
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10### Input
11Your task is to estimate the market size for **$ARGUMENTS** within the specified market constraints (geography, industry vertical, customer type, etc.).
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13If the user provides market research, industry reports, financial data, or competitor information, read and analyze them directly. Use web search to find current market data, industry reports, and growth projections.
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15### Analysis Steps (Think Step by Step)
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171. **Market Definition**: Define the market boundaries — what problem space, which customer segments, what geography or constraints apply
182. **Top-Down Estimation**: Start from total industry size and narrow to the relevant slice
193. **Bottom-Up Estimation**: Build from unit economics (customers × price × frequency) to cross-validate
204. **SAM Scoping**: Identify which portion of TAM is realistically serviceable given product capabilities, channels, and constraints
215. **SOM Estimation**: Estimate achievable share in the next 1-3 years based on competitive position and go-to-market capacity
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